Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-01-10 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 46.3%

MTL: 53.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.10

MTL: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	30	27	3	90.0%	5.04	5	2.04
MTL	Jakub Dobes	17	15	2	88.2%	2.51	2	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	1.00
1	MTL	9	1	0.99
2	WSH	10	0	0.74
2	MTL	22	1	1.98
3	WSH	13	1	0.76
3	MTL	14	2	1.11
4	WSH	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	3	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3