Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

PIT: 41.2%

OTT: 58.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.68

OTT: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	22	17	5	77.3%	2.81	1	-2.19
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	29	29	0	100.0%	1.84	0	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PIT at home vs OTT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.61
1	OTT	12	0	1.10
2	PIT	16	0	0.67
2	OTT	15	1	1.55
3	PIT	17	0	0.56
3	OTT	6	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5