Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 59.5%

VAN: 40.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.43

VAN: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 36%

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	19	16	3	84.2%	2.21	2	-0.79
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	20	20	0	100.0%	1.50	1	1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	1.03
1	VAN	13	1	0.86
2	TOR	12	0	0.32
2	VAN	10	1	1.05
3	TOR	6	0	0.15
3	VAN	6	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1