Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-01-11 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Dallas Stars
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 29.7%
DAL: 70.3%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.27
DAL: 3.06
Total Goals
Median: 4.2
Over 5.5: 30%
Over 6.5: 19%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | MTL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.615 | 0.857 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs DAL: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | DAL 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | DAL |
| 2025-11-13 | MTL 0 - 7 DAL | DAL | MTL |
| 2025-01-16 | DAL 1 - 3 MTL | MTL | DAL |
| 2025-01-11 | MTL 1 - 2 DAL | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-02-10 | MTL 2 - 3 DAL | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 15:14 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:34 | MTL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 70.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.3
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.3 - 3.1
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