Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

MTL: 31.3%

DAL: 68.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.40

DAL: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	37	35	2	94.6%	4.52	5	2.52
DAL	Jake Oettinger	34	33	1	97.1%	2.73	1	1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs DAL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	MTL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	0	0.44
1	DAL	18	2	1.24
2	MTL	18	1	1.27
2	DAL	10	2	0.90
3	MTL	12	0	0.51
3	DAL	9	0	0.64
4	MTL	2	0	0.26
4	DAL	5	0	0.71
5	MTL	3	0	0.24
5	DAL	2	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.4 - 3.4