Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 48.7%

LAK: 51.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.77

LAK: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

LAK

David Rittich - 16-14-2 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	32	31	1	96.9%	2.56	1	1.56
LAK	David Rittich	18	16	2	88.9%	2.47	0	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CGY at home vs LAK: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	CGY 3 - 1 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-03-24	CGY 3 - 2 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-02-28	LAK 2 - 0 CGY	LAK	LAK
2025-12-13	LAK 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	LAK
2025-04-17	LAK 1 - 5 CGY	CGY	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	9	0	0.79
1	LAK	18	1	1.44
2	CGY	12	0	0.69
2	LAK	10	0	0.46
3	CGY	13	0	0.99
3	LAK	13	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1