New York Rangers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-01-11 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 60.1%
NYR: 39.9%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.24
NYR: 2.66
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | VGK | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.895 | 0.885 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs NYR: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | NYR 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | NYR |
| 2025-11-18 | VGK 3 - 2 NYR | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-02-02 | NYR 4 - 2 VGK | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-01-11 | VGK 1 - 2 NYR | NYR | VGK |
| 2024-01-26 | NYR 2 - 5 VGK | VGK | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 06:16 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 09:54 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 05:57 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.2 - 2.7