Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

SJS: 33.8%

MIN: 66.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.65

MIN: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	22	19	3	86.4%	2.44	1	-0.56
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	37	36	1	97.3%	2.83	1	1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs MIN: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	SJS 4 - 3 MIN	SJS	MIN
2025-11-11	MIN 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-10-26	MIN 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-04-09	MIN 8 - 7 SJS	MIN	MIN
2025-01-11	SJS 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	20	0	0.85
1	MIN	8	0	0.36
2	SJS	22	1	1.29
2	MIN	15	1	1.48
3	SJS	13	0	0.68
3	MIN	13	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5