Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-01-12 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 58.9%
TBL: 41.1%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.19
TBL: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | PIT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.963 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • PIT at home vs TBL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | PIT 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | PIT |
| 2025-12-04 | TBL 3 - 4 PIT | PIT | TBL |
| 2025-03-25 | TBL 6 - 1 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-12 | PIT 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | PIT |
| 2024-11-19 | PIT 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:20 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 06:54 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 16:04 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:17 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 16:57 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:48 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:39 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9