Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-01-12 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PIT: 39.5%

TBL: 60.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.88

TBL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	19	14	5	73.7%	3.73	2	-1.27
TBL	Jonas Johansson	33	31	2	93.9%	2.95	0	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	24	0	1.14
1	TBL	7	0	0.31
2	PIT	19	0	0.63
2	TBL	15	0	0.77
3	PIT	18	0	1.18
3	TBL	12	2	2.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1