Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 49.3%

TBL: 50.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.02

TBL: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	45	43	2	95.6%	3.34	1	1.34
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	18	6	75.0%	3.40	5	-2.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BOS at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	0	1.12
1	TBL	16	0	0.62
2	BOS	15	3	1.16
2	TBL	24	1	1.47
3	BOS	9	2	1.13
3	TBL	26	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3