Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 51.6%

DAL: 48.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.96

DAL: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	23	19	4	82.6%	2.65	4	-1.35
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	27	1	96.4%	2.45	2	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	TOR
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.60
1	DAL	16	2	1.06
2	TOR	19	1	0.83
2	DAL	15	2	1.09
3	TOR	14	1	1.03
3	DAL	7	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0