Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-01-14 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 58.6%
DAL: 41.4%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.11
DAL: 2.91
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | TOR | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.964 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TOR at home vs DAL: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | DAL 5 - 1 TOR | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-01-14 | TOR 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | TOR |
| 2024-12-18 | DAL 3 - 5 TOR | TOR | DAL |
| 2024-02-07 | TOR 5 - 4 DAL | TOR | TOR |
| 2023-10-26 | DAL 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:33 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 04:15 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 12:35 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:54 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:06 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9