Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 62.2%

FLA: 37.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.50

FLA: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	31	28	3	90.3%	3.94	3	0.94
FLA	Spencer Knight	29	27	2	93.1%	3.67	3	1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	NJD 5 - 1 FLA	NJD	NJD
2025-11-20	FLA 1 - 0 NJD	FLA	FLA
2025-10-16	NJD 3 - 1 FLA	NJD	NJD
2025-01-14	NJD 1 - 2 FLA	FLA	NJD
2024-11-14	FLA 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	0	0.68
1	FLA	8	0	0.20
2	NJD	11	2	0.90
2	FLA	18	0	0.58
3	NJD	12	0	0.85
3	FLA	16	1	1.01
4	NJD	4	0	0.31
4	FLA	3	0	0.21
5	NJD	3	1	0.93
5	FLA	3	2	1.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8