Anaheim Ducks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 0 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

WSH: 62.5%

ANA: 37.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.22

ANA: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	19	19	0	100.0%	1.67	0	1.67
ANA	John Gibson	25	22	3	88.0%	3.36	1	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-05	WSH 7 - 4 ANA	WSH	WSH
2025-12-05	ANA 4 - 3 WSH	ANA	WSH
2025-03-11	ANA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-01-14	WSH 3 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH
2024-01-16	WSH 2 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	20	1	1.54
1	ANA	11	0	0.53
2	WSH	15	0	0.79
2	ANA	8	0	0.47
3	WSH	13	0	1.02
3	ANA	13	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 0 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8