Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 0 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 54.1%

OTT: 45.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.10

OTT: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	27	25	2	92.6%	3.16	3	1.16
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	24	24	0	100.0%	1.25	0	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs OTT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	NYI
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.42
1	OTT	10	0	0.47
2	NYI	15	0	0.37
2	OTT	12	1	0.82
3	NYI	10	0	0.45
3	OTT	17	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 0 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9