Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-01-14 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 0 - 2 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 56.8%
OTT: 43.2%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.08
OTT: 2.66
Total Goals
Median: 4.5
Over 5.5: 36%
Over 6.5: 23%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | NYI | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.878 | 0.891 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • NYI at home vs OTT: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | NYI 0 - 3 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-19 | OTT 3 - 2 NYI | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-10-18 | OTT 4 - 5 NYI | NYI | OTT |
| 2025-01-14 | NYI 0 - 2 OTT | OTT | NYI |
| 2024-12-08 | OTT 2 - 4 NYI | NYI | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 08:42 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 18:36 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 2.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 0 - 2 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.1 - 2.7
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