New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Win Probability

COL: 70.3%

NYR: 29.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.67

NYR: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	29	27	2	93.1%	3.66	1	1.66
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	23	3	88.5%	3.04	1	0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	NYR 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-11-20	COL 6 - 3 NYR	COL	COL
2025-01-26	NYR 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-14	COL 3 - 2 NYR	COL	COL
2024-03-28	COL 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	7	0	0.60
1	NYR	17	1	1.41
2	COL	19	0	0.85
2	NYR	13	0	0.85
3	COL	16	1	1.28
3	NYR	8	0	0.58
4	COL	3	0	0.32
4	NYR	9	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.7 - 2.5