Montreal Canadiens at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions
2025-01-14 • Delta Center
Utah Hockey Club 3 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
UTA: 59.2%
MTL: 40.8%
Expected Goals
UTA: 3.23
MTL: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 27-15-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.61 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | UTA | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.897 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.750 | 0.912 |
| GAA | 2.68 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • UTA at home vs MTL: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | UTA 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | UTA |
| 2025-11-08 | MTL 6 - 2 UTA | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-01-14 | UTA 3 - 5 MTL | MTL | UTA |
| 2024-11-26 | MTL 2 - 3 UTA | UTA | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:11 | UTA | Goal |
| 1 | 03:18 | UTA | Goal |
| 1 | 19:06 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 10:40 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 18:34 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:07 | UTA | Goal |
| 3 | 06:33 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:15 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Utah Hockey Club 3 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9