New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-01-16 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 45.5%
NJD: 54.5%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.17
NJD: 3.13
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 23-19-1 | 0.883 SV% | 3.07 GAA
| Stat | TOR | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.873 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 1.000 | 0.893 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 11% • TOR at home vs NJD: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | NJD 4 - 3 TOR | NJD | NJD |
| 2025-12-30 | TOR 4 - 0 NJD | TOR | NJD |
| 2025-10-21 | TOR 2 - 5 NJD | NJD | TOR |
| 2025-01-16 | TOR 4 - 3 NJD | TOR | NJD |
| 2024-12-10 | NJD 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NJD |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:21 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 06:14 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 08:14 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 07:43 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 09:44 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 15:47 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 01:10 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 3.2 - 3.1
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