Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-01-16 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 71.6%
ANA: 28.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.59
ANA: 2.65
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
ANA
Lukas Dostal - 30-20-4 | 0.888 SV% | 3.10 GAA
| Stat | TBL | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.840 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.893 | 0.871 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.15 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TBL at home vs ANA: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | ANA 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-25 | TBL 4 - 3 ANA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-16 | TBL 4 - 3 ANA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-05 | ANA 4 - 1 TBL | ANA | ANA |
| 2024-03-24 | ANA 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:03 | ANA | Goal |
| 1 | 14:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 02:51 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 71.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks
Expected: 3.6 - 2.7
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