Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-01-16 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 63.1%
ANA: 36.9%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.55
ANA: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
ANA
Lukas Dostal - 22-13-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.98 GAA
| Stat | TBL | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.893 | 0.871 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.15 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs ANA: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | ANA 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | ANA |
| 2025-10-25 | TBL 4 - 3 ANA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-16 | TBL 4 - 3 ANA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-05 | ANA 4 - 1 TBL | ANA | ANA |
| 2024-03-24 | ANA 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | ANA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:03 | ANA | Goal |
| 1 | 14:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 02:51 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 63.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks
Expected: 3.6 - 2.9