Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 59.4%

DET: 40.6%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.73

DET: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 34%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	15	5	75.0%	2.51	1	-2.49
DET	Cam Talbot	43	41	2	95.3%	3.77	2	1.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • FLA at home vs DET: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	FLA 8 - 1 DET	FLA	FLA
2026-03-10	FLA 4 - 3 DET	FLA	FLA
2026-03-06	DET 1 - 3 FLA	FLA	DET
2025-10-15	DET 4 - 1 FLA	DET	DET
2025-04-10	FLA 4 - 1 DET	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	20	0	0.94
1	DET	8	0	0.33
2	FLA	13	1	0.97
2	DET	12	0	0.87
3	FLA	29	1	1.86
3	DET	7	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9