San Jose Sharks at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

CBJ: 61.2%

SJS: 38.8%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.69

SJS: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	19	18	1	94.7%	2.50	3	1.50
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	34	30	4	88.2%	4.58	4	0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CBJ at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CBJ 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	CBJ
2026-01-06	SJS 5 - 2 CBJ	SJS	SJS
2025-01-16	CBJ 4 - 1 SJS	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-05	SJS 2 - 1 CBJ	SJS	CBJ
2024-03-16	CBJ 4 - 2 SJS	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	15	2	1.47
1	SJS	7	1	0.77
2	CBJ	16	1	1.09
2	SJS	8	1	0.50
3	CBJ	14	1	2.02
3	SJS	17	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8