Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-01-16 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 59.3%
PHI: 40.7%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.13
PHI: 2.70
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 50%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | NYI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.936 | — |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | PHI 0 - 4 NYI | NYI | PHI |
| 2025-11-28 | NYI 3 - 4 PHI | PHI | NYI |
| 2025-10-25 | PHI 4 - 3 NYI | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-04-12 | PHI 4 - 3 NYI | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-01-30 | PHI 0 - 3 NYI | NYI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:21 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 13:41 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 09:29 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 05:15 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 18:48 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:16 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 05:16 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 00:30 | PHI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.1 - 2.7