New York Rangers at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 5 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 54.3%

NYR: 45.7%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.47

NYR: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	25	20	5	80.0%	5.23	5	0.23
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	31	28	3	90.3%	3.14	2	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs NYR: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-05	NYR 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-11-22	UTA 3 - 2 NYR	UTA	UTA
2025-01-16	UTA 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	UTA
2024-10-12	NYR 5 - 6 UTA	UTA	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	22	2	1.67
1	NYR	13	0	0.75
2	UTA	15	0	0.77
2	NYR	11	0	0.63
3	UTA	11	0	0.70
3	NYR	15	5	3.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 5 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8