Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 53.1%

EDM: 46.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.83

EDM: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	28	24	4	85.7%	3.70	3	-0.30
EDM	Stuart Skinner	25	22	3	88.0%	2.56	0	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 37% • COL at home vs EDM: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	8	0	0.89
1	EDM	15	1	1.03
2	COL	11	0	0.70
2	EDM	21	2	1.98
3	COL	18	0	0.97
3	EDM	8	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4