Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-01-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BUF: 46.2%

PIT: 53.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.24

PIT: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	19	14	5	73.7%	2.95	2	-2.05
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	42	40	2	95.2%	4.28	2	2.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.68
1	PIT	13	0	0.55
2	BUF	23	0	1.59
2	PIT	13	0	0.88
3	BUF	27	2	2.02
3	PIT	7	2	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1