Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-01-17 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

CAR: 66.9%

VGK: 33.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.56

VGK: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	31	29	2	93.5%	3.45	3	1.45
VGK	Adin Hill	28	25	3	89.3%	3.05	3	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	10	0	0.37
1	VGK	21	1	1.83
2	CAR	26	3	2.02
2	VGK	9	2	0.81
3	CAR	10	0	0.67
3	VGK	15	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8