Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 51.5%

PHI: 48.5%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.32

PHI: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	18	15	3	83.3%	3.10	4	0.10
PHI	Samuel Ersson	13	12	1	92.3%	1.89	1	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NJD at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	7	0	0.37
1	PHI	9	0	0.27
2	NJD	9	1	0.98
2	PHI	13	2	0.95
3	NJD	10	0	0.54
3	PHI	12	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9