Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 5 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

OTT: 51.2%

BOS: 48.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.81

BOS: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 40%

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	31	26	5	83.9%	2.99	2	-2.01
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	47	41	6	87.2%	5.50	3	-0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs BOS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	28	2	2.26
1	BOS	10	0	0.74
2	OTT	13	0	0.36
2	BOS	13	1	0.80
3	OTT	23	0	1.63
3	BOS	10	1	0.97
4	OTT	3	0	0.26
4	BOS	2	0	0.25
5	OTT	3	1	0.99
5	BOS	3	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.8 - 3.2