Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2025-01-18 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 48.5%
DAL: 51.5%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.74
DAL: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 8.2
Over 5.5: 85%
Over 6.5: 74%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 30-6-6 | 0.920 SV% | 2.07 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | COL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.951 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.925 | 0.912 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | DAL 0 - 2 COL | COL | DAL |
| 2026-03-18 | COL 1 - 2 DAL | DAL | COL |
| 2026-03-06 | DAL 4 - 5 COL | COL | COL |
| 2025-10-11 | COL 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-03 | DAL 4 - 2 COL | DAL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:24 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 13:07 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:31 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:56 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:30 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:13 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:08 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:47 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:13 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.7 - 3.0
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