Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-01-18 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 64.3%
DET: 35.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.52
DET: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | TBL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.926 | 0.897 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs DET: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-10-17 | DET 2 - 1 TBL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3 - 4 DET | DET | TBL |
| 2025-02-08 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-01-25 | DET 2 - 0 TBL | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:02 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:06 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:12 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:58 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:16 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.5 - 2.8