Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TBL: 69.2%

DET: 30.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.91

DET: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	38	1	97.4%	2.90	0	1.90
DET	Cam Talbot	22	17	5	77.3%	2.95	5	-2.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	TBL
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	2	0.59
1	DET	21	0	1.31
2	TBL	13	2	1.56
2	DET	17	0	0.95
3	TBL	10	1	0.80
3	DET	15	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.9 - 2.5