Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-19 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

DAL: 64.6%

DET: 35.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.43

DET: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 38%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	34	33	1	97.1%	2.86	1	1.86
DET	Alex Lyon	25	21	4	84.0%	2.88	3	-1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • DAL at home vs DET: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	DAL 3 - 2 DET	DAL	DAL
2025-12-23	DET 4 - 3 DAL	DET	DET
2025-04-14	DET 6 - 4 DAL	DET	DET
2025-01-19	DAL 4 - 1 DET	DAL	DAL
2024-01-23	DET 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	3	1.57
1	DET	13	1	0.87
2	DAL	8	0	0.67
2	DET	20	0	1.07
3	DAL	12	0	0.64
3	DET	19	0	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7