St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-01-20 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 62.8%
STL: 37.2%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.58
STL: 2.14
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
STL
Jordan Binnington - 8-17-6 | 0.864 SV% | 3.65 GAA
| Stat | VGK | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.869 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.826 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.929 | 0.875 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 3.56 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs STL: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | VGK 4 - 2 STL | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-01-02 | STL 4 - 3 VGK | STL | STL |
| 2025-11-15 | STL 1 - 4 VGK | VGK | STL |
| 2025-01-23 | STL 2 - 4 VGK | VGK | STL |
| 2025-01-20 | VGK 4 - 5 STL | STL | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:25 | STL | Goal |
| 1 | 14:09 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 19:43 | STL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:31 | STL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:25 | STL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:29 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:50 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:30 | VGK | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | VGK | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | VGK | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.6 - 2.1