Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-01-20 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 60.5%
TBL: 39.5%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.32
TBL: 2.78
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | TOR | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.941 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | TBL 4 - 2 TOR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-08 | TOR 2 - 0 TBL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-09 | TBL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TBL |
| 2025-01-20 | TOR 5 - 3 TBL | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-11-30 | TBL 3 - 5 TOR | TOR | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:06 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 13:45 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 16:07 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:37 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 08:07 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 10:09 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:05 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:55 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.3 - 2.8