Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-20 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

NYI: 56.4%

CBJ: 43.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.97

CBJ: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	26	25	1	96.2%	1.95	1	0.95
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	25	22	3	88.0%	2.75	2	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs CBJ: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYI 1 - 0 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2026-02-28	CBJ 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	CBJ
2025-12-28	CBJ 4 - 2 NYI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-02	NYI 3 - 2 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2025-04-17	CBJ 6 - 1 NYI	CBJ	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.29
1	CBJ	11	0	0.42
2	NYI	18	1	1.27
2	CBJ	12	0	0.83
3	NYI	9	1	1.18
3	CBJ	14	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8