Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-01-20 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 56.7%

PIT: 43.3%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.35

PIT: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

LAK

David Rittich - 16-14-2 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	David Rittich	33	28	5	84.8%	3.75	2	-1.25
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	26	25	1	96.2%	1.88	0	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • LAK at home vs PIT: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-09	PIT 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-10-16	LAK 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	LAK
2025-01-20	LAK 1 - 5 PIT	PIT	LAK
2024-12-17	PIT 3 - 2 LAK	PIT	LAK
2024-02-18	PIT 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	9	0	0.32
1	PIT	21	1	1.64
2	LAK	20	0	0.84
2	PIT	10	0	0.61
3	LAK	16	0	0.71
3	PIT	15	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7