Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 53.6%

CAR: 46.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.16

CAR: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	19	17	2	89.5%	1.96	0	-0.04
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	23	22	1	95.7%	4.46	6	3.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs CAR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	CAR 6 - 3 DAL	CAR	CAR
2025-10-25	DAL 3 - 2 CAR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-21	DAL 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	DAL
2024-11-25	CAR 6 - 4 DAL	CAR	CAR
2024-02-24	CAR 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	2	0.58
1	CAR	14	0	0.66
2	DAL	13	0	1.16
2	CAR	8	0	0.47
3	DAL	21	4	2.72
3	CAR	11	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0