Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-01-21 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 57.7%

WSH: 42.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.07

WSH: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 44%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	14	11	3	78.6%	2.32	0	-0.68
WSH	Logan Thompson	32	30	2	93.8%	3.74	3	1.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	EDM 6 - 5 WSH	EDM	EDM
2025-11-19	WSH 7 - 4 EDM	WSH	WSH
2025-02-23	WSH 7 - 3 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-01-21	EDM 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	EDM
2024-03-13	EDM 7 - 2 WSH	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	19	0	1.02
1	WSH	8	0	0.66
2	EDM	19	3	2.11
2	WSH	12	0	0.78
3	EDM	11	0	0.61
3	WSH	12	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8