Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2025-01-21 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 54.8%
WSH: 45.2%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.03
WSH: 2.91
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | EDM | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.841 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.867 | 0.867 |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs WSH: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | EDM 6 - 5 WSH | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-11-19 | WSH 7 - 4 EDM | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-02-23 | WSH 7 - 3 EDM | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-01-21 | EDM 2 - 3 WSH | WSH | EDM |
| 2024-03-13 | EDM 7 - 2 WSH | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:02 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 09:01 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 08:14 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 03:49 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 04:50 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.0 - 2.9