Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-01-21 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 58.2%

BUF: 41.8%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.51

BUF: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 39%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	26	23	3	88.5%	2.09	0	-0.91
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	32	2	94.1%	2.88	2	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	BUF 5 - 3 VAN	BUF	BUF
2025-12-11	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-21	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	VAN
2024-11-29	BUF 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	BUF
2024-03-19	VAN 3 - 2 BUF	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	8	0	0.34
1	BUF	13	0	0.61
2	VAN	18	1	1.56
2	BUF	15	0	0.52
3	VAN	16	1	0.97
3	BUF	15	0	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9