Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-01-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

CGY: 55.2%

BUF: 44.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.30

BUF: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	34	32	2	94.1%	3.49	2	1.49
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	21	5	80.8%	4.56	4	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	BUF
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	1	1.12
1	BUF	17	0	0.60
2	CGY	12	0	0.50
2	BUF	21	1	1.30
3	CGY	16	3	2.94
3	BUF	17	1	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8