Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-01-23 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 45.7%

PIT: 54.3%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.15

PIT: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	32	31	1	96.9%	2.31	0	1.31
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	34	29	5	85.3%	4.81	5	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	PIT 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	PIT
2025-10-14	ANA 4 - 3 PIT	ANA	ANA
2025-01-23	ANA 5 - 1 PIT	ANA	PIT
2024-10-31	PIT 2 - 1 ANA	PIT	PIT
2023-11-07	ANA 0 - 2 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	16	1	1.08
1	PIT	16	0	0.77
2	ANA	16	0	0.89
2	PIT	17	0	0.86
3	ANA	17	4	2.84
3	PIT	16	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1