Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-24 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

NYI: 57.3%

PHI: 42.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.35

PHI: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	29	1	96.7%	2.43	1	1.43
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	27	24	3	88.9%	2.21	2	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	0	0.51
1	PHI	12	0	0.54
2	NYI	22	1	1.05
2	PHI	13	0	0.93
3	NYI	13	1	0.64
3	PHI	20	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8