Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions
2025-01-24 • United Center
Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CHI: 54.6%
TBL: 45.4%
Expected Goals
CHI: 2.97
TBL: 3.41
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CHI
Spencer Knight - 16-16-7 | 0.908 SV% | 2.62 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | CHI | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.909 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.864 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.935 | 0.909 |
| GAA | 2.63 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • CHI at home vs TBL: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | CHI 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-23 | TBL 2 - 3 CHI | CHI | TBL |
| 2025-01-28 | TBL 1 - 4 CHI | CHI | TBL |
| 2025-01-24 | CHI 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | CHI |
| 2023-11-16 | CHI 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | CHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:59 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 16:29 | CHI | Goal |
| 1 | 18:47 | CHI | Goal |
| 2 | 04:59 | CHI | Goal |
| 2 | 19:52 | CHI | Goal |
| 3 | 19:18 | CHI | Goal |
| 4 | 00:58 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 3.4