Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-01-24 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

CHI: 31.4%

TBL: 68.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.84

TBL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	40	36	4	90.0%	3.88	2	-0.12
TBL	Jonas Johansson	14	11	3	78.6%	1.93	1	-1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs TBL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	15	1	1.33
1	TBL	15	1	1.20
2	CHI	11	0	0.53
2	TBL	13	0	1.01
3	CHI	4	0	0.06
3	TBL	23	1	1.50
4	CHI	0	0	0.00
4	TBL	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3