Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 47.3%

COL: 52.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.81

COL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 44%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	27	1	96.4%	2.24	3	1.24
COL	Scott Wedgewood	15	12	3	80.0%	2.08	3	-0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs COL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-25	BOS 3 - 2 COL	BOS	COL
2025-10-18	COL 4 - 1 BOS	COL	COL
2025-01-25	BOS 3 - 1 COL	BOS	COL
2024-10-16	COL 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	COL
2024-01-18	BOS 5 - 2 COL	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	0	0.32
1	COL	17	2	0.90
2	BOS	5	0	0.10
2	COL	10	0	0.57
3	BOS	9	3	1.66
3	COL	18	1	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9