Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

EDM: 70.6%

BUF: 29.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.77

BUF: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	41	39	2	95.1%	4.64	3	2.64
BUF	James Reimer	34	31	3	91.2%	4.06	3	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	2	1.76
1	BUF	6	0	0.55
2	EDM	21	0	1.09
2	BUF	25	2	2.22
3	EDM	12	1	1.20
3	BUF	26	1	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.8 - 2.5