New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-01-25 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 57.7%
NJD: 42.3%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.19
NJD: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
| Stat | MTL | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.899 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | 0.842 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 43% • MTL at home vs NJD: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | NJD 4 - 3 MTL | NJD | NJD |
| 2025-02-08 | MTL 0 - 4 NJD | NJD | MTL |
| 2025-01-25 | MTL 3 - 4 NJD | NJD | MTL |
| 2024-11-07 | NJD 5 - 3 MTL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-02-24 | NJD 4 - 3 MTL | NJD | NJD |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:52 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 17:48 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 03:50 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 12:56 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 17:05 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 03:34 | MTL | Goal |
| 4 | 04:06 | NJD | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0