Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DET: 56.1%

TBL: 43.9%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.40

TBL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	28	28	0	100.0%	2.91	3	2.91
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	30	2	93.8%	3.93	2	1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	TBL
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.05
1	TBL	11	0	0.40
2	DET	16	0	1.05
2	TBL	15	3	1.19
3	DET	12	1	1.83
3	TBL	19	0	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3