Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2025-01-25 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 61.9%
TBL: 38.1%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.22
TBL: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | DET | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.895 | 0.927 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | TBL 4 - 3 DET | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-03-12 | TBL 4 - 1 DET | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-28 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-17 | DET 2 - 1 TBL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3 - 4 DET | DET | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 09:55 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 19:32 | DET | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 61.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 2.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.2 - 3.1
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