Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 52.7%

CGY: 47.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.39

CGY: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	29	24	5	82.8%	2.70	1	-2.30
CGY	Dustin Wolf	25	21	4	84.0%	2.31	3	-1.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MIN at home vs CGY: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	7	0	0.35
1	CGY	8	0	0.46
2	MIN	13	0	0.47
2	CGY	16	0	1.04
3	MIN	14	3	1.49
3	CGY	14	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8