Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (70% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 30.4%

CAR: 69.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.35

CAR: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	27	25	2	92.6%	2.93	1	0.93
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	27	24	3	88.9%	1.95	0	-1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • NYI at home vs CAR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	NYI 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-04	CAR 4 - 3 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-10-30	CAR 6 - 2 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-03-30	CAR 6 - 4 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-01-25	NYI 3 - 2 CAR	NYI	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.79
1	CAR	13	0	0.50
2	NYI	15	0	0.56
2	CAR	14	0	0.89
3	NYI	9	0	0.50
3	CAR	24	1	1.37
4	NYI	1	0	0.10
4	CAR	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.3 - 2.9