Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-01-26 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 60.8%
COL: 39.2%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.35
COL: 3.05
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | NYR | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.942 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.907 | 0.842 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs COL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | NYR 2 - 3 COL | COL | NYR |
| 2025-11-20 | COL 6 - 3 NYR | COL | COL |
| 2025-01-26 | NYR 4 - 5 COL | COL | NYR |
| 2025-01-14 | COL 3 - 2 NYR | COL | COL |
| 2024-03-28 | COL 2 - 3 NYR | NYR | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:43 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 06:26 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:10 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 08:36 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 14:36 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:01 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:05 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:02 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:45 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.3 - 3.1