Utah Hockey Club at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

OTT: 53.9%

UTA: 46.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.42

UTA: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	35	34	1	97.1%	2.35	0	1.35
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	27	24	3	88.9%	3.59	3	0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • OTT at home vs UTA: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	UTA 3 - 1 OTT	UTA	OTT
2025-11-09	OTT 4 - 2 UTA	OTT	OTT
2025-01-26	OTT 3 - 1 UTA	OTT	OTT
2024-10-22	UTA 0 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.64
1	UTA	16	0	0.69
2	OTT	8	0	0.54
2	UTA	17	0	0.84
3	OTT	19	3	2.41
3	UTA	13	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9