Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-01-28 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 56.2%
WPG: 43.8%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.00
WPG: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | MTL | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.938 | 0.846 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs WPG: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | WPG 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | WPG |
| 2025-12-03 | MTL 3 - 2 WPG | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-01-28 | MTL 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | MTL |
| 2024-12-14 | WPG 4 - 2 MTL | WPG | WPG |
| 2023-12-18 | WPG 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:03 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:36 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:44 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 19:58 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 18:15 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1