Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (80% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 79.5%

CHI: 20.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.91

CHI: 2.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	21	17	4	81.0%	3.53	5	-0.47
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	35	34	1	97.1%	4.26	3	3.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs CHI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	1	1.61
1	CHI	10	0	0.52
2	TBL	16	0	1.08
2	CHI	16	1	1.14
3	TBL	20	2	1.58
3	CHI	9	4	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 79.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.9 - 2.4